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Durable Goods Production Holds Steady
The month-over-month rate of contraction was close to 6.0% each of the last five months.
10-Year Treasury Rate Creeps Higher
The change in the 10-yr Treasury was at its highest level since January. A less negative change in the real rate is less stimulating to the economy, which is not what the Federal Reserve wants right now.
October Machine Tool Orders Up 9%
Machine tool orders increased for the second month in a row. The trend in the GBI indicates growth in machine tool orders should continue.
Money Supply Growth Fastest Since Great Recession
Compared with one year ago, November’s monetary base was up 53.6%, which was the third month in a row and fifth in the last seven months with faster than 50% growth.
Durable Goods Orders Reach Bottom
Consumer durable goods spending is growing extremely fast, hitting a record high five straight months, and indicating a bottom in the rate of contraction in durable goods new orders has occurred.
Survey Sees Machine Tool Buyers Seeking to Reduce Costs and Add Operational Flexibility
The 2021 Metalworking Capital Spending Survey from Gardner Intelligence shows overall purchasing declines but increased investment in higher-end machine tools such as turn-mill machines and five-axis machining centers.
Durable Goods Spending Rises 14.7% in October
In October, real consumer durable goods spending was $2,066.5 billion, which is an all-time high for the fifth consecutive month.
Housing Permits Grow Four out of Five Months
There were 132,900 housing permits filed in October 2020, which was the third month in the last four with more than 130,000 permits filed. That has not happened since March to June 2007.
Income Below Peak Levels During Stimulus
October had the lowest level of income since the start of the pandemic. Although, income was still 5.0% higher than one year ago because some COVID-related benefits were still in place.
Durable Goods Capacity Utilization Highest Since February
Compared with one year ago, capacity utilization contracted 4.4%, which was the sixth straight month that the month-over-month rate of change contracted at a slower rate and the slowest rate of contraction since February.
Money Supply Growth Continues to Accelerate
The accelerating growth in the money supply is indicating growth in capital equipment consumption.
Durable Goods Production Highest Since Start of Pandemic
Compared with one year ago, the index contracted 4.2%, which was the sixth consecutive month of decelerating contraction.
