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Bottom in Machine Tool Orders in Sight
The trend in the GBI: Metalworking indicates that machine tool orders will bottom out sometime between September and the first quarter of 2021.
Durable Goods New Orders Nearing a Bottom
A burst in consumer durable goods spending indicates that the annual rate of contraction in durable goods new orders may be near a bottom.
Disposable Income Growth Above Average for 5th Month
While disposable income growth was above its historic average rate, a significantly higher proportion of income was still coming from government transfer payments.
Consumer Durable Goods Spending Hits All-Time High for 3rd Straight Month
Spending patterns are changing due to the pandemic. Service and experience items are out. Goods that allow more isolated entertainment or tie in with a life of working from home are in.
Housing Permits Show Continued Strength
Total permits in the three-month period ending August 2020 were the highest three-month total since July 2007.
Cutting Tool Orders Nearing a Bottom
Recent changes in the Gardner Business Index indicate that the annual rate of contraction in cutting tool orders is nearing a bottom.
Capacity Utilization Improving
Compared with one year ago, capacity utilization contracted 8.5%, which was the fourth straight month that the month-over-month rate of change contracted at a slower rate and the slowest rate of contraction since February.
Durable Goods Production at Highest Level Since February
Compared with one year ago, the index contracted 8.1%, which was the fourth month in a row that the month-over-month rate of change in the index decelerated and the slowest rate of contraction since February.
Money Supply Growth Similar to 2009
The annual rate of growth accelerated to 20.1% in August, which was the fifth straight month of accelerating growth and the fastest rate of growth since December 2014.
Real 10-Yr Rate Supporting Durable Goods Manufacturing
August 2020 was the eighth consecutive month and 11th of the last 13 that the real rate was negative.
Machine Tool Contraction Bottoming Out
The last two months of machine tool orders were the two highest of 2020.
Durable Goods New Orders Contraction Slowing
July new orders contracted just 5.7% less than one year ago, which was the slowest rate of month-over-month rate of contraction in the last five months
